Belgian arms export halved due to court decision.

On 9th March Vredesactie and its partners booked a major legal victory. On demand of the Ligue des Droits Humains, CNAPD and Vredesactie, with support of Amnesty International, the Belgian administrative court suspended a series of new arms export licences with end destination Saudi Arabia granted by the Walloon regional government in December 2019. The exact value of these licences is not known. However, now that the Belgian export statistics over 2019 are complete and all the regional arms export reports over 2018 are published, it is possible to better estimate the impact of this judgment. This proves to be major: the trade flow blocked by this judgment represented in 2017 and 2018 50% of the Belgian arms export and over 2019 possibly even 75%.

The Walloon annual report on arms trade in 2018 shows that the Walloon region exported about 1 billion euro of defense-related goods. The exact value of actual exported goods is 949.922.079 euro in 2018, a rise from 702.066.538 euro in 2017 and 408.235.982 euro in 2016. Between 2008 and 2015 the value of actual arms exports ranged between 250 million and 410 million euro.

This doubling of the Walloon arms exports can be attributed almost completely to the major contract of CMI Defence (now called John Cockerill) with Saudi Arabia. The largest part of this export is indirect and first goes to Canada. CMI Defence makes turrets, which are mounted on armoured cars by General Dynamics Land Systems in Canada. Subsequently these armoured cars are exported to Saudi Arabia. This contract, which would have a total value of 4.5 billion euro over several years, seems to have accounted for a third of the Walloon arms export in 2017 and its share will probably have risen to more than 50% in 2019. From the export statistics we can derive that about 50% of this contract has been carried out. This implies that the judgment potentially cancels more than 2 billion euro of arms exports related to this contract. Potentially, as this judgment is a provisory suspension until the final judgment is delivered. Further it is also unknown if the suspended licences accounted for the whole of the work left for this contract. However, if the administrative court sticks to its legal reasoning, the consequence is that all work on this contract is blocked.

The other licences concerned small and light weapons and munition from FN and Mecar. The last years such export to Saudi Arabia amounted to 180 to 190 million euro/year. All licences were valid for 18 months.

The Belgian export statistics show that Saudi Arabia has been the main client of Belgian arms exports also in former years, but since 2017 these exports have grown massively.
The total amount of Belgian arms exports can not be easily derived from the export statistics. The categories used in these statistics do not overlap with the material subjected to the arms export regulations. Material subjected to an export licence often disappears within a more broad category, as happen with aircrafts and components thereof. But for some categories, which accidently are also the relevant categories for the export to Saudi Arabia, such overlap does exist to a large extent: Arms and ammunition (HS93) and Tanks and armoured fighting vehicles (HS8710). The global figure for HS93 also contain hunting rifles and so on, but when the figure is large it represents mostly military goods. 

The direct export to Saudi Arabia on HS93 and HS8710 remains largely stable between 2017 and 2019 at 190 to 200 million euro. The export to Canada on HS8710 shows in these years a large growth (2017: 248 million, 2018: 428 million, 2019: 720 million). This increase in 2017 and 2018 concurs very well with the increase in total arms exports from Wallonia as mentioned in the year report, which should not surprise as this figure represents in 2017 a third and in 2018 almost halve of the Walloon arms exports. When we sum the direct and indirect arms export to Saudi Arabia on these specific export categories, it totals 439 million euro in 2017, 618 million euro in 2018 and in 2019 919 million euro. For 2017 and 2018 this represents 62 to 65% of the total Walloon arms export, and in 2019 possibly even more than 80% (if we assume equal figures for other arms exports).

It is not possible to give exact figures for the actual arms exports for the whole of Belgium, as the exports from Flanders and Brussels are subsumed in other, broader categories. But an estimate of its size can be derived from the figures of licenced export in the arms trade reports. We make an estimate by summing up over the different sorts of licences. This is however no exact figure, as it concerns partly actual export and partly value of licences. But it can be used to estimate the size of exports from the other Belgian regions. For Flanders we get in 2017 144 million euro and in 2018 112 million euro, for Brussels in 2017 12 million euro and in 2018 31 million euro. These figures show that most arms exports come from the Walloon region. Using these figures to estimate the total Belgian arms export, it is clear that in 2017 and 2018 about 50% of Belgian arms export had Saudi Arabia as final destination and that for 2019 such exports to Saudi Arabia will probably account for 75% of the Belgian arms exports.

These export figures show how dependent the Walloon arms industry has become on one customer: Saudi Arabia. Its growth of the last years has therefore been totally dependent on ignorance for war crimes and large scale violations of human rights. Despite all big words about the importance of the defence industry for a European defence and its strategic autonomy, this cannot be read from the export statistics. These show on the contrary Belgium as eager supplier to a regime which does not shy away from cutting up its own citizens and for the most bloody conflict happening today: the war in Yemen. The strong growth in Belgian arms export during the last 3 years is solely due to this one client.

The Belgian administrative court has now suspended these exports, as they are in full contradiction with the european export criteria from Common Position 2008/944/CFSP, which have been included in the regional arms trade laws. If this suspension gets continued in a final decision which annuls the export licences, Belgian arms exports will probably drop in 2020 by 50%. This dent in Belgian arms trade shows the importance of the human rights and conflict prevention criteria in the arms trade law and of juridical action to enforce compliance with these criteria.

This battle is not finished yet! The judgment of 9th March was only a provisory suspension. The procedure to annul the export licences has just been introduced. Further we are still in an ongoing legal battle to obtain more information on which licences have been given, in order to check if export is still possible on remaining licences. And if this is the case, to also block these licences. The analysis of the export statistics makes clear that this is not only a battle for the legal principles, but that it has a large impact on the actual arms export.

You can help us to halve the Belgian arms exports by financially supporting our legal actions on account number BE02 5230 4030 0040.